Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  37.4  34.1  40.7  46.5  41.0  38.7  17.1  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  49.0  41.0  45.0  65.0  51.0  29.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  34.0  25.0  32.0   3.0  10.0  19.0  22.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.4%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        1.9%        2.0%