Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     57.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  35.8  41.3  46.5  43.2  47.1  37.6  25.8  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  44.0  42.0  49.0  57.0  40.0  29.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  30.0  35.0  18.0 -10.0  -6.0  13.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  -1.0   4.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.1%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%