Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  38.4  43.7  44.8  40.9  45.6  27.4  32.4  U  U VU VU VU VU  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  44.0  52.0  61.0  68.0  68.0  33.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  29.0  36.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   7.0  35.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.2%        1.4%