Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  37.6  39.5  42.8  48.1  30.4  30.5  18.0 VU  U  U VU VU  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  62.0  74.0  69.0  70.0  33.0  41.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  11.0  24.0  10.0 -28.0  27.0  37.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        1.3%        1.9%