Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  34.3  40.1  46.9  39.2  31.1  13.5  20.6  U  U  U VU  U  U  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  80.0  74.0  71.0  60.0  35.0  38.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  15.0   2.0 -13.0   0.0  49.0  31.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        1.7%        3.3%