Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112020 200816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  41.7  47.7  48.6  30.0  28.8  16.7  16.0  U VU VU VU  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  80.0  69.0  67.0  51.0  30.0  33.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   3.0 -15.0  -9.0  31.0  13.0  -1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        1.6%        4.3%