Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122020 200815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     71.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  43.7  53.3  62.9  69.9  68.8  58.7  62.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0  23.0  49.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  81.5  89.3  84.6  59.8  54.7  30.1  50.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  91.0  42.0  52.0  44.0   6.0   7.0   3.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  51.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0  10.0  21.0  33.0 -22.0 -46.0 -31.0  N  N  U VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons