Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122020 200815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.1  58.2  66.9  64.0  71.5  69.1  51.4  62.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  17.0  61.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  84.3  81.1  66.7  45.9  28.4  26.7  37.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  65.0  59.0  72.0  32.0  23.0 -27.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  27.0  31.0  17.0   5.0 -25.0 -54.0-104.0  U VU VU  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons