Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122020 200815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.80     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.0  55.7  59.1  62.8  68.5  55.8  61.8  74.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  63.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  88.0  73.0  59.2  55.5  24.6  40.0  34.2  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  35.0  26.0   7.0 -40.0   1.0  40.0   5.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  47.0  43.0  40.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  11.0  10.0  -4.0  -6.0 -18.0 -21.0 -13.0  U  U  U  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons