Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122020 200816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.80     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.8  60.9  63.0  67.0  57.9  57.9  57.9  57.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0  22.0  16.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.2  86.0  86.0  84.3  51.7  51.7  51.7  51.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0   2.0 -37.0 -40.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -23.0 -21.0 -34.0 -37.0 -37.0 -37.0 -37.0  N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons