Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122020 200816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     59.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.1  60.2  61.4  58.4  53.5  53.5  53.5  53.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0   3.0  34.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  96.2  98.0  83.0  66.7  66.7  66.7  66.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -51.0 -50.0 -50.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -14.0 -24.0 -15.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons