Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     47.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  19.7  24.5  30.8  29.2  22.7  25.9  14.4  F  N  N  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  17.0  25.0  27.0  54.0  47.0  64.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.7 122.9 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  89.0  93.0  37.0  35.0 -37.0   6.0  36.0  F  F  F  N  N VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -7.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       15.1%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        5.1%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       21.5%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        7.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        8.5%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        8.2%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       17.4%       22.3%       19.8%