Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  23.2  29.9  28.6  23.0  22.7  20.3  18.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  27.0  29.0  43.0  47.0  71.0  64.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.1 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  86.0  10.0  40.0  11.0 -21.0  30.0  42.0  F  F  U  N  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -11.0  -9.0   0.0  -8.0   0.0  -2.0 -10.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       13.3%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.2%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.9%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       21.0%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        7.4%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        9.7%        8.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        8.8%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       18.9%       24.9%       21.9%