Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     50.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  30.0  28.4  26.0  22.0  24.6  14.6  17.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  40.0  53.0  47.0  57.0  47.0  50.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.6 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  45.0  41.0  35.0  15.0  10.0  28.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -7.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0 -13.0 -10.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.8%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       13.0%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        7.1%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.5%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%       20.1%       21.8%