Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  29.5  27.5  22.9  27.7  19.5  19.9  14.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  40.0  52.0  49.0  54.0  61.0  45.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  37.0  34.0   0.0 -38.0  35.0  30.0  31.0  U  N  N  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0 -11.0 -19.0 -11.0  F  N  N  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.3%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.3%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        4.9%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        3.2%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.8%       17.1%       16.9%