Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  23.8  22.4  23.7  26.1  15.2  21.1  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  54.0  48.0  47.0  68.0  50.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  35.0  -3.0 -46.0 -42.0   7.0   4.0  -9.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -4.0 -10.0  -4.0 -14.0  -7.0 -12.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        8.5%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        9.9%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        7.1%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.4%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       17.2%       20.3%       18.7%