Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     57.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  21.1  25.6  29.9  18.8  17.7  16.8  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  47.0  47.0  75.0  65.0  48.0  48.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  17.0 -34.0 -45.0  17.0  16.0   7.0  -6.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0 -14.0  -8.0  -4.0 -12.0  -5.0 -10.0  N  F VF  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       13.7%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.5%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.5%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       18.5%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        6.2%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       12.8%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        9.2%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       20.0%       29.0%       24.5%