Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  29.7  30.2  26.3  13.7  15.6  10.4  20.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  45.0  66.0  70.0  37.0  52.0  51.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -28.0 -35.0  -5.0  48.0  26.0 -16.0   5.0  U VU VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -23.0 -17.0 -10.0 -14.0  -3.0 -12.0 -14.0  F VF VF  F VF  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        6.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       30.4%       21.9%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%       15.7%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       15.7%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       13.6%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       40.8%       25.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%       21.4%       13.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.0%       25.6%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%       23.7%       15.3%
 65kt / 72h       16.9%       43.5%       30.2%