Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  31.8  28.2  20.2  15.1  14.7  23.2  19.6  N  U  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  64.0  71.0  61.0  38.0  41.0  58.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -25.0 -11.0  20.0  32.0   9.0  -3.0 -20.0 VU VU  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -13.0  -7.0  -7.0 -10.0 -12.0 -17.0 -19.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        3.0%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       18.2%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        7.5%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        7.5%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        7.5%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       25.2%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       10.7%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       15.3%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       12.8%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%       27.5%       20.1%