Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     62.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  25.0  21.2  15.9  17.0  15.0  26.1  16.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  90.0  61.0  44.0  76.0  54.0  63.0 119.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0   2.0  21.0  45.0  15.0  43.0   5.0  26.0 VU  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -9.0 -10.0 -14.0  -5.0 -12.0 -22.0  -8.0 VF  F  F VF  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.0%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.1%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        9.4%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        2.3%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%        8.6%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%        4.5%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h       26.0%       17.3%       21.7%