Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  17.8  16.2  20.8  17.0  22.5  18.5  15.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  60.0  43.0  42.0  49.0  56.0  94.0 129.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  26.0  55.0  51.0  40.0  37.0  42.0  31.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0 -12.0 -10.0  -4.0 -13.0 -13.0 -14.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       14.0%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        4.7%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       16.5%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        5.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%       13.2%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        7.2%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       43.7%       32.6%       38.2%