Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  17.4  22.0  20.6  17.6  20.2  15.5  20.2  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  47.0  39.0  73.0  52.0  62.0  86.0  86.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  51.0  37.0  13.0  40.0  34.0  45.0   3.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -17.0 -10.0  -3.0  -9.0 -15.0 -11.0 -19.0  F VF  F  N  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       17.8%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.6%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.6%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.9%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       21.6%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        7.5%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%       16.9%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%        9.4%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h       51.3%       38.8%       45.0%