Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     67.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  24.3  20.4  18.6  25.2  17.5  16.1  18.3  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  43.0  72.0  66.0  58.0  73.0 142.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  48.0  20.0  47.0   5.0  23.0  39.0  11.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -11.0  -1.0  -6.0 -11.0 -11.0 -16.0  -7.0 VF  F  N  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.0%       14.4%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       35.7%       56.6%       46.2%
 30kt / 24h       22.5%       42.6%       32.5%
 35kt / 24h       17.4%       42.6%       30.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.3%       41.0%       25.2%
 45kt / 36h       23.9%       53.1%       38.5%
 55kt / 36h       15.2%       33.2%       24.2%
 55kt / 48h       25.1%       33.5%       29.3%
 70kt / 48h       12.3%       28.1%       20.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.9%       51.2%       46.1%