Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     68.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  24.1  23.3  27.2  24.3  16.0  23.8  12.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  70.0  59.0  51.0  62.0  95.0  97.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  34.0  43.0  36.0  11.0  21.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -1.0   2.0  -6.0 -11.0 -12.0 -14.0 -11.0  F  N  N  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%       14.1%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       31.9%       52.2%       42.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.4%       38.6%       28.5%
 35kt / 24h       16.3%       38.6%       27.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       33.7%       19.7%
 45kt / 36h       18.5%       49.8%       34.1%
 55kt / 36h       10.4%       29.5%       20.0%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%       32.4%       27.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%       26.7%       18.5%
 65kt / 72h       35.5%       47.6%       41.6%