Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     72.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  23.7  22.7  26.1  14.7  20.9  10.4  16.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  57.0  63.0  61.0 132.0  69.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N VF  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  21.0  21.0  28.0  12.0   2.0  39.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -9.0  -8.0 -12.0 -13.0 -14.0  -7.0  -1.0  N  F  F  F VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.9%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       26.3%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       13.9%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       13.9%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       11.0%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       28.0%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       11.8%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       25.1%       25.3%       25.2%
 70kt / 48h       13.8%       14.9%       14.4%
 65kt / 72h       48.9%       39.9%       44.4%