Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.2  24.8  22.3  17.7  19.7  14.3  14.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  62.0  63.0  88.0 138.0  55.0  73.0  45.0  N  N  N  F VF  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  41.0  28.0  40.0  21.0  45.0  41.0  37.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0 -17.0 -15.0 -12.0 -12.0  -5.0  -2.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.3%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       21.0%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%        9.2%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        9.2%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        9.2%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       23.4%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%        8.9%        8.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%       18.4%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h       15.1%       10.1%       12.6%
 65kt / 72h       48.3%       31.4%       39.9%