Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  26.6  25.1  19.6  23.1  15.9  24.1  16.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  62.0  67.0 110.0  97.0  55.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  20.0  -2.0  16.0   2.0  38.0  38.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -19.0 -19.0 -13.0 -16.0 -10.0 -10.0   4.0  N VF VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        5.7%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       30.6%       23.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       16.8%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       16.8%       12.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       15.8%        9.9%
 45kt / 36h       18.5%       29.2%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h       11.6%       12.5%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.2%       20.7%       21.5%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%       12.7%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       29.0%       26.4%       27.7%