Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  24.6  20.0  18.4  24.7  17.8  19.5  32.3  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  72.0 126.0 164.0  50.0  62.0  38.0   7.0  N  N  F VF  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  16.0  32.0  21.0  20.0  51.0  31.0  39.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  65.0  62.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -14.0  -8.0  -6.0  -5.0  -1.0  -3.0   9.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        4.7%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       29.6%       25.2%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       16.4%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.3%       16.4%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.0%       16.4%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.4%       16.9%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h       10.3%        5.4%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       20.0%       14.7%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%        6.3%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%       11.1%       15.9%