Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     79.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  20.5  20.1  28.4  17.4  24.3  21.0  26.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0 104.0 150.0  66.0  57.0  51.0  47.0   7.0  N  F VF  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  26.0  39.0  -9.0  34.0  50.0  26.0  21.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -13.0  -6.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0  10.0   3.0 VF VF  F  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        9.5%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        3.6%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%        5.8%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        1.2%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        6.5%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        1.8%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%        5.8%       14.9%