Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40     81.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.9  28.1  26.0  18.2  18.2  30.4  31.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 146.0  65.0  55.0  66.0  39.0  45.0   7.0  F VF  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  25.0 -21.0  19.0  40.0  24.0  37.0  41.0  N  U VU  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  14.0   2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        6.8%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       27.7%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       14.7%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       14.7%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       12.2%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       23.4%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%        9.1%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%       18.3%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%        7.9%        7.9%
 65kt / 72h       16.5%       11.1%       13.8%