Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  26.3  25.6  16.6  24.8  25.5  30.8  31.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  157.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  49.0  56.0   7.0   6.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  76.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0   0.0  43.0  41.0  36.0  14.0  17.0  62.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  -7.0  -2.0  14.0   8.0  13.0  N  F  N  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.9%       13.6%       13.8%
 25kt / 24h       34.5%       46.7%       40.6%
 30kt / 24h       23.4%       33.2%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       33.2%       24.4%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%       31.0%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.0%       34.0%       29.0%
 55kt / 36h       13.7%       16.2%       14.9%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%       22.9%       21.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%       10.0%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%        6.8%        8.1%