Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  25.3  18.7  16.6  19.2  29.0  34.8  28.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  59.0  56.0  73.0  41.0  43.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  72.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  41.0  34.0  29.0  18.0  33.0  34.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0  25.0   2.0  31.0  F  N  F  N  N VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        7.7%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       24.9%       37.9%       31.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.8%       24.8%       21.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.3%       24.8%       18.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       24.8%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.3%       26.4%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h       10.5%       11.4%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       16.9%       15.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%        6.1%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        4.4%        5.0%