Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  17.1  17.7  22.6  20.9  32.9  29.2  29.5  N  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  59.0  72.0  61.0  36.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  75.5  51.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  42.0  38.0  23.0  40.0  19.0  33.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  11.0   7.0  25.0  20.0  N  F  N  N  U  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.0%       14.9%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       37.8%       46.4%       42.1%
 30kt / 24h       32.2%       39.2%       35.7%
 35kt / 24h       30.8%       39.2%       35.0%
 40kt / 24h       30.8%       39.2%       35.0%
 45kt / 36h       30.0%       28.5%       29.3%
 55kt / 36h       16.9%       12.4%       14.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       14.5%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        4.2%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%