Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.2  21.9  18.1  33.1  37.5  29.1  25.3  F  N  N  F  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  68.0  56.0  39.0  47.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  54.3  43.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  21.0  16.0  23.0  44.0  36.0  25.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0  29.0   2.0  43.0   3.0  F  F  N  N VU  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.7%       38.4%       51.6%
 25kt / 24h       60.3%       69.4%       64.9%
 30kt / 24h       58.7%       69.4%       64.1%
 35kt / 24h       57.2%       69.4%       63.3%
 40kt / 24h       54.2%       69.4%       61.8%
 45kt / 36h       39.3%       41.8%       40.6%
 55kt / 36h       24.0%       23.4%       23.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       17.3%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        5.3%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%