Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10     88.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  24.2  22.3  27.7  32.7  27.5  25.6  35.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  52.0  35.0  45.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  61.6  38.6  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  32.0  42.0  30.0  38.0  62.0  39.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   7.0  13.0   9.0  24.0  21.0  39.0  F  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.4%       29.0%       40.2%
 25kt / 24h       49.1%       54.2%       51.7%
 30kt / 24h       44.3%       53.3%       48.8%
 35kt / 24h       44.3%       53.3%       48.8%
 40kt / 24h       32.3%       53.3%       42.8%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       17.9%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.7%        7.1%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        7.5%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%