Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  20.3  29.0  36.4  33.1  28.2  26.4  36.8  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  38.0  45.0  14.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.6  29.6  18.0  20.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  35.0  33.0  26.0  53.0  28.0  38.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   2.0  14.0  27.0   0.0  29.0   6.0  44.0  F  N  U VU  N VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       69.4%       32.8%       51.1%
 25kt / 24h       41.8%       39.5%       40.7%
 30kt / 24h       37.9%       34.3%       36.1%
 35kt / 24h       37.9%       34.3%       36.1%
 40kt / 24h       34.7%       32.5%       33.6%
 45kt / 36h       35.3%       14.9%       25.1%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%        6.4%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%