Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  28.7  34.9  32.8  28.7  25.2  33.7  37.4  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  42.0  21.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  33.0  13.6   8.0  16.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  47.0  30.0  41.0  43.0  63.0  76.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  55.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  14.0  25.0  18.0  21.0  12.0  36.0  31.0  N  U VU VU VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.9%       22.8%       41.8%
 25kt / 24h       29.2%       26.6%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       29.0%       22.2%       25.6%
 35kt / 24h       29.0%       22.2%       25.6%
 40kt / 24h       15.8%       16.4%       16.1%
 45kt / 36h       34.3%        9.9%       22.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%