Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     92.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  36.5  33.3  32.8  24.8  26.1  35.6  47.4  N  U  U  U  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  44.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  44.3   2.7  -7.8  -7.8   1.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  44.0  26.0  50.0  29.0  38.0  72.0  33.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  61.0  62.0  52.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  29.0  14.0  13.0  23.0  -4.0  41.0  45.0  U VU  U  U VU  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.5%        7.6%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%        7.3%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%        4.4%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%        4.4%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%