Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40     92.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  31.4  35.1  24.3  24.6  30.2  31.3  44.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  29.6   4.8 -12.0 -17.8  -8.9 -34.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  24.0  44.0  54.0  49.0  52.0  28.0  58.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  66.0  66.0  55.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  12.0  13.0  21.0  12.0  42.0   6.0  -4.0 VU  U  U VU  U VU  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.8%        5.0%       15.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%