Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80     93.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  36.2  27.5  25.8  26.6  29.8  37.7  49.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  22.9   4.8  -7.3 -17.8 -15.0 -16.4 -37.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  33.0  50.0  30.0  26.0  51.0  21.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  63.0  64.0  56.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  11.0  14.0  26.0   0.0  25.0  16.0 -51.0  U  U  U VU  N VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        1.3%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%