Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132020 200827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -75.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  25.3  26.3  26.1  35.0  35.6  44.3  95.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.2  63.0  60.0  55.8  57.2  51.7  32.8   3.1  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  27.0  11.0  12.0  18.0  30.0  55.0 110.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  61.0  51.0  53.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  21.0  10.0   9.0  48.0  25.0 -60.0  -6.0  U VU  U  U VU VU VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons