Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     79.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  11.8   7.2   9.3  14.9  15.4  22.4  15.5  F  F VF  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  49.0  55.0  71.0 115.0  92.0  32.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 136.0  98.0  96.0 104.0  85.0  78.0  53.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   7.0   8.0   1.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        5.3%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       27.5%       55.4%       41.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       36.6%       25.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       36.6%       21.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       36.6%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       34.0%       69.4%       51.7%
 55kt / 36h       22.3%       49.0%       35.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       65.3%       58.2%
 70kt / 48h       32.8%       58.5%       45.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       73.1%       67.7%