Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     81.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  12.3  13.9  13.8  11.4  14.3  16.7  20.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  48.0  48.0  58.0  95.0  64.0  40.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  80.0  84.0  81.0  85.0  76.0  69.0  72.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  77.0  79.0  72.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.2%       36.9%       25.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       19.8%       13.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       19.8%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       19.8%       10.7%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       54.8%       40.2%
 55kt / 36h       15.6%       31.9%       23.8%
 55kt / 48h       50.8%       51.6%       51.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       42.5%       33.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       61.7%       62.1%