Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  16.9  17.0  13.5  12.6  22.8  11.3  28.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  52.0  73.0  98.0  90.0  32.0  39.0  68.0  N  N  N  F  F  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  80.0  88.0  84.0  64.0  50.0  82.0  47.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  56.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  11.0   0.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       26.8%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%       11.6%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       11.6%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       11.6%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       20.4%       40.5%       30.4%
 55kt / 36h       13.2%       17.7%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       40.4%       30.4%       35.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       20.8%       22.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.3%       41.6%       51.4%