Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     83.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  15.1  15.7  16.0  13.9  16.0  25.2  25.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  78.0 106.0 101.0  54.0  38.0  54.0  74.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  80.0  87.0  84.0  74.0  41.0  51.0  40.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  13.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.1%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       31.7%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%       14.1%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       14.1%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       14.1%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h       22.1%       44.9%       33.5%
 55kt / 36h       14.8%       20.7%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       42.3%       34.2%       38.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       23.3%       24.0%
 65kt / 72h       59.3%       40.1%       49.7%