Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     84.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.8  17.6  13.8  17.2  14.6  25.8  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0 121.0 120.0 103.0  36.0  38.0  62.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0 102.0  96.0  78.0  69.0  24.0  46.0  28.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   9.0  -3.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.8%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.5%       30.1%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%       12.1%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       12.1%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       12.1%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.7%       37.5%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h       15.4%       14.8%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       44.9%       29.9%       37.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       19.6%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       60.9%       35.0%       48.0%