Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     84.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  14.2  14.6  15.7  15.9  28.2  25.5  38.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  124.0 119.0  94.0  60.0  36.0  53.0  74.0  53.0  F  F  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  84.0  62.0  50.0  18.0  55.0  48.0  19.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  13.0   6.0   5.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        4.6%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.3%       37.6%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       16.7%       13.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       16.7%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       16.7%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h       19.6%       41.8%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h       13.4%       19.0%       16.2%
 55kt / 48h       39.1%       29.9%       34.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       19.5%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       57.9%       29.3%       43.6%