Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  15.6  18.0  21.8  19.1  32.9  30.9  39.3  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0  84.0  49.0  38.0  43.0  67.0  53.0  45.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  56.0  75.0  68.0  32.0  49.0  44.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0  14.0  -6.0  22.0   4.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  F VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%       15.2%       14.3%
 25kt / 24h       35.0%       52.9%       44.0%
 30kt / 24h       23.5%       34.9%       29.2%
 35kt / 24h       18.9%       34.9%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.9%       34.9%       26.9%
 45kt / 36h       30.4%       54.4%       42.4%
 55kt / 36h       21.7%       31.3%       26.5%
 55kt / 48h       28.8%       27.5%       28.1%
 70kt / 48h       23.0%       18.0%       20.5%
 65kt / 72h       31.0%       18.4%       24.7%