Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  20.3  24.7  20.2  29.4  28.6  37.8  39.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  62.0  55.0  56.0  51.0  59.0  38.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  86.0  44.0  42.0  70.0  19.0  55.0  10.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0  19.0  14.0   6.0  12.0   8.0   7.0  N  N VU  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.2%       16.1%       15.2%
 25kt / 24h       37.7%       54.2%       46.0%
 30kt / 24h       24.7%       37.3%       31.0%
 35kt / 24h       18.5%       37.3%       27.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.5%       37.3%       27.9%
 45kt / 36h       27.7%       50.5%       39.1%
 55kt / 36h       17.6%       28.2%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%       25.1%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h       14.0%       13.5%       13.8%
 65kt / 72h       15.9%       11.0%       13.5%