Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  24.5  22.1  21.1  36.3  32.4  38.4  39.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  57.0  50.0  55.0  50.0  40.0  58.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  51.0  46.0  81.0  30.0  27.0   1.0  21.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  53.0  55.0  48.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  21.0  17.0   2.0  25.0  17.0  16.0   6.0  N VU  U  N VU  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.3%       30.8%       36.0%
 25kt / 24h       60.8%       71.8%       66.3%
 30kt / 24h       49.5%       64.9%       57.2%
 35kt / 24h       41.3%       64.9%       53.1%
 40kt / 24h       41.3%       64.9%       53.1%
 45kt / 36h       35.1%       54.4%       44.8%
 55kt / 36h       21.3%       33.4%       27.3%
 55kt / 48h       20.0%       27.6%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%       12.8%       11.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%        7.9%        9.3%